Although the annual MLB trade deadline is an important leverage point for all 30 teams, some clubs hold more chips than others.
Sellers with the most impactful available players and buyers with the most enticing prospects are uniquely positioned to shift the landscape of MLB, both short-term for aspiring post-season contenders and long-term for those retreating to restock the farm system.
Teams often wait until the last possible moment to decide whether to buy or sell. Given this season’s congested playoff picture, the 2026 trade market has been particularly difficult to parse.
The six teams vying for the final spot in the American League wild-card race are separated by 3.5 games. In the National League, the wild-card race is separated by only 2.5 games.
To figure out that mess, let’s look at which potential buyers and sellers stand to define the Aug. 3 deadline. All playoff odds and farm system rankings are from FanGraphs.
Milwaukee BrewersPlayoff odds: 99.8%Greatest need: Starting pitching Farm system ranking: No. 3
Even though they’ve won their division three straight years and made the playoffs in seven of the past eight, the Brewers have historically been passive at the trade deadline. That could change this year. According to multiple reports from MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and Mark Feinsand, Milwaukee is “prepared to be more aggressive at the trade deadline this year.” The Brewers also have one of the best farm systems in baseball, boasting six top-100 prospects, per MLB Pipeline, giving them the resources to pursue the biggest fish on the market. Adding Tarik Skubal or Mason Miller to the No. 2 team in MLB is a frightening proposition for other contenders. Maybe the Brewers’ lopsided sweep at the hands of the Dodgers in last fall’s NLCS is enough motivation to risk it all and land this generation’s CC Sabathia.
Pittsburgh PiratesPlayoff odds: 41.5%Greatest need: Relief pitching Farm system ranking: No. 5
With 41.5 per cent playoff odds and one game back in the National League wild-card race, the Pirates have plenty of motivation to go all in. They’re within striking distance of ending the National League’s longest playoff drought (10 years), have a positive run differential that indicates they might be even better than their record indicates, and have a robust, consensus top-five farm system to draw from. Add that Paul Skenes’ arbitration eligibility kicks off next year, and the clock is ticking. Sure, the Pirates have Skenes under team control for three more years. But Pittsburgh going for it and even making a deep post-season run or two could show the 24-year-old reigning Cy Young winner that it’s committed to competing, help it keep him and avoid a situation like the Detroit Tigers have with Skubal right now.
New York Yankees Playoff odds: 98.9%Greatest need: CatcherFarm system ranking: No. 21
Brian Cashman and the Yankees are always aggressive when positioned to buy, and this season shouldn’t be any exception. Last season, they made seven deadline deals that added talent to the big-league roster, including adding three significant arms (David Bednar, Camilo Doval, Jake Bird) to the bullpen. They also got out ahead of the market, filling a need at third base by trading for Ryan McMahon six days ahead of the deadline. The Bronx Bombers should be active early and often once again as they reportedly are targeting a catcher to split duties with Austin Wells behind the dish, a bat to make up for the four-to-six weeks Cody Bellinger is set to miss, and, of course, relief pitching.
Seattle Mariners Playoff odds: 58.4%Greatest need: Right-handed batFarm system ranking: No. 15
The Mariners have jumped the market for consecutive deadlines, trading for Randy Arozarena five days out from the 2024 cutoff and acquiring Josh Naylor seven days in advance last year. Both moves kicked off a flurry of activity, and considering the Mariners are underperforming expectations, are one of the six teams in the American League with a positive run differential and have one of the best rotations in baseball, it stands to reason they’ll be willing to bet on their 58.4 per cent playoff odds and add meaningfully to their big-league roster. Could they spark a slew of transactions again and acquire a much-needed right-handed bat? (The Mariners’ .642 OPS vs. left-handed pitching ranks 29th in MLB.)
Boston Red SoxPlayoff odds: 66.2%Greatest need: Shortstop, power bat Farm system ranking: No. 11
It was just over one month ago that Red Sox pitchers Sonny Gray and Aroldis Chapman were headlining lists of potential trade candidates as Boston sat in the basement of the American League with less than 10 per cent FanGraphs playoff odds. Since then, the Sox have gone 23-5, including a miraculous, franchise-record-tying 15-game win streak, and hold the second American League wild-card spot. Having made only one post-season appearance in the last four years — a wild-card series loss to the Yankees last season — look for Boston to augment its roster, potentially with a compelling young shortstop to replace the oft-injured Trevor Story.
Minnesota TwinsPlayoff odds: 38.1%Greatest need: Relief pitching Farm system ranking: No. 4
The Twins have hung around .500 on the periphery of the AL playoff picture and general manager Jeremy Zoll said on Tuesday that they will look to buy at the deadline. The impact their position as buyers has on the market is as much about the Twins’ top-end talent that will no longer be available as it is about their buying power. Joe Ryan was set to be the No. 2 starter on the market after Tarik Skubal. Byron Buxton would have been the best available bat. Again, both will reportedly not be traded. Bearing in mind that the Twins’ farm system also ranks in the top 10 by multiple outlets (MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, ESPN), and they could be poised to add meaningfully to their major league roster.
Detroit TigersPlayoff odds: 30.7%Greatest asset: Starting pitchingFarm system ranking: No. 9
Despite a convincing 14-0 drubbing of the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday, the Tigers are a one-of-a-kind seller this season. Other teams that have the Tigers’ 30.7 per cent playoff odds, an easy remaining strength of schedule, plenty of games left against in-division opponents and a plus-39 run differential that indicates they’ve played better than their record might be inclined to rally. But other teams don’t have the reigning back-to-back Cy Young winner, who has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball over the last three years set to hit free agency. Failing to move Skubal and getting nothing for the most coveted trade chip on the market would be poor asset management. The Tigers are six games below .500 at 51-57. We all remember how buying went for the 2023 Los Angeles Angels and Shohei Ohtani, and they were five games above.
San Diego PadresPlayoff odds: 18.4%Greatest asset: Relief pitching Farm system ranking: No. 30
The Padres are also a curious case of a uniquely positioned team that’s towing the murky middle. Normally, a club 1.5 games out of a wild-card spot wouldn’t be leaning toward a sell. But considering their 18.4 per cent playoff odds, it may be too difficult to resist moving high-value potential trade candidates to supplement their ailing farm system. High-velocity, bat-missing relievers have massive trade value. The best example of this is the Padres themselves, who’ve emptied their cupboards of top prospects to trade for Tanner Scott and Mason Miller the last two deadlines. And not only do the Padres have the otherworldly Miller, they also have Adrian Morejon. Miller is the hardest-throwing right-handed pitcher in MLB (101.4 m.p.h.) and Morejon is the hardest-throwing lefty (99.2 m.p.h.).
Miami MarlinsPlayoff odds: 12.6%Greatest asset: Pitching and catching Farm system ranking: No. 10
The Marlins just lost 12 straight, dropping into potential seller territory. And they have a pair of valuable pitchers who could fetch significant returns. Sandy Alcantara is the closest he’s been to his 2022 Cy Young form since missing the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery, recording a 2.99 ERA since the start of June with strong peripherals. He’s also one of only four pitchers in the National League to pitch a complete-game shutout this season. Alcantara could start a playoff game for a contender, and that has tremendous value. And although closer Pete Fairbanks has had poor results in 2026, he still has high-end velocity, misses bats and strikes batters out, which is of paramount importance to interested clubs. Canadian catcher Liam Hicks, who’s in the midst of a breakout season, is also now reportedly on the block.
Los Angeles Angels Playoff odds: 0.0%Greatest asset: Starting pitching, shortstopFarm system ranking: No. 23
The tier of aggressive sellers is all about teams that are clearly out of contention for a post-season berth and have the most attractive assets to clubs that are eyeing a deep October run. And the Angels might have the most enticing trade candidates outside of Skubal and Miller. Zach Neto, the Angels’ 25-year-old shortstop, is one blast away from his third straight 20-home run season, and he has 70 stolen bases over that span. Jose Soriano and Reid Detmers are both young, controllable starters with intriguing upside. The Angels should recoup significant prospect capital in exchange for this group.
Toronto Blue JaysPlayoff odds: 5.8%Greatest asset: Starting pitching, outfield Farm system ranking: No. 20
Coming off a World Series run, the Blue Jays’ descent to a deadline seller has been shocking. However, they do have a few proven post-season performers on expiring contracts that could be appealing to aspiring contenders. Kevin Gausman was masterful last October, and his strong underlying numbers suggest his mediocre results this season have been at least slightly unlucky. George Springer’s penchant for playoff heroics is well known. And while Daulton Varsho and Shane Bieber are having down seasons, they’ve still both been there and done that on the biggest stage.
New York MetsPlayoff odds: 0.7%Greatest asset: Starting pitching Farm system ranking: No. 25
This last team was a close call between the San Francisco Giants and Mets, and while the Giants have several notable trade candidates, the Mets edge them out as deadline players due to the pair of high-end starters they could move. Freddy Peralta is having a down year, but was among the most reliable front-end starters in baseball over the previous five seasons. The Mets sent two top-100 prospects to the Brewers for Peralta’s service in the off-season, who are now reportedly looking to reacquire him for what would undoubtedly be a significantly lower price. Currently rehabbing starter Clay Holmes had a 2.39 ERA through nine games to start the season and just threw four scoreless innings in a rehab start. And while the Francisco Lindor trade speculation seems ludicrous, you just never know.